Background: In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the primary constraint limiting agricultural productivity. Conventional tillage practices exacerbate moisture loss through soil disturbance and reduced organic matter.

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of different conservation tillage practices on soil moisture retention and subsequent wheat yield compared to traditional conventional tillage.

Method: A randomized complete block design (RCBD) with three treatments—Zero Tillage (ZT), Reduced Tillage (RT), and Conventional Tillage (CT)—was implemented. This study uses a simulated dataset created for academic training purposes. Soil moisture was monitored at bi-weekly intervals using time-domain reflectometry (TDR) sensors at three soil depths. Yield components were measured at harvest.

Key Results: Simulated data indicated that ZT conserved significantly higher volumetric water content in the top 0–30 cm soil profile compared to CT, particularly during the critical grain-filling stage. Consequently, ZT produced a simulated 18% higher grain yield than CT, primarily due to enhanced spikelet fertility and thousand-grain weight.